Like a black swan bird – something that occurs rarely in nature – a black swan event is a high-profile but rare occurrence that is beyond the realm of normal expectations. The term was introduced by Nassim Taleb in his 2004 book, Fooled by Randomness. It’s a metaphor that, according to Taleb, has three characteristics:
- The event is a surprise
- It has a major effect
- After the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected. In other words, the data were available to foresee it, but risk mitigation programs didn’t account for it.
Read the complete article at The International Man here.
Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.