Our belief is that it will take some time until the price will move back in line with these fundamental trends. Until then, gold or silver owners can rest assured that the gold and silver market is not as bad as some would like to make you believe.
Trend 3: Gold vs silver coin demand
Another imporatnt data point in the physical market is the gold and silver coin demand at the U.S. Mint. Here again, similar to the previous trend, the data are confirming silver’s relative strength in the physical market.
Trend 7: Gold repatriation goes mainstream
A big “surprise” in 2014 was the series of announcements of countries looking into repatriating their gold back “home”:
Germany is in the process of shipping back some 300 tonnes of gold from the U.S. and 374 tonnes from France by 2020, the first real steps in that respect have been taken in 2014
The Netherlands repatriated 122.5 tonnes from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, without any prior announcement
Marine Le Pen from the Front National party of France requested that the country’s gold holdings be repatriated back to France
Belgium’s governor of the central bank is looking at how they can bring their gold reserves back into the country.
Trend 8: Peak gold in 2015
Gold production is expected to peak in 2015. As the next chart suggests, the discovery cycle peaked some 20 years ago, and that will only reflect as of this year in the production volumes. Combine this with the falling gold prices (currently right below the average cost of production), and the result is a series of liquidations of miners and mining projects which would lead to an even more drastic short-term decrease of gold output.
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